The Ultimate BCS Moment

So just when you think the college football season couldn’t get any dumber, it goes and pulls something like this…..and totally redeems itself!  I mean, how can any sports fan be upset with the kind of system altering chaos that has developed in the last two weeks of the season?  First it was Stanford getting knocked around by Oregon on its home field while Boise State lost its first regular season home game in 13 years.  That, in itself, was quite disruptive to the BCS system and set up some interesting debates.  But it was just a precursor of what was to come.

The real drama began Friday night with a second and way more chaotic weekend in college football.  While many experts thought Oklahoma State might lose one of its final two games, not one that I saw predicted that it would come on Friday at Iowa State.  Many thought Oregon would be tested by USC, but certainly they wouldn’t get beat on their own field.  Oklahoma had already had their hiccup and were on their way back into the BCS conversation.  And Clemson had an outside chance of slipping into the title game if all the right things happened. 

Well, all the right things happened, but Clemson forgot that they had to beat a scrappy NC State team to keep their shot alive.  It’s a funny thing, this college football.  One week a team looks unstoppable.  The next, all their flaws and warts are on display on national television.  Granted, there are no unbeatable teams in this day and age of college athletics.  Talent, coaching, and media hype are at an all time high.  If a team has a weakness, which they all do, someone or something will find a way to exploit it. 

And that leaves us with a possibly landscape altering scenario.  No, I’m not talking about conference realignment, although that could speed up the process.  I’m referring to the fact that it’s an almost certainty that the top three teams in the upcoming BCS standings will be from the same division, not just the same conference.  Last time I checked, only one team could win its division, and only one team could win its conference.  And we are faced with the distinct possibility that a non-division winning team could be playing in the national championship.

This brings me to my next point.  What if LSU handles Arkansas while Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl?  You would have the top team in the BCS playing a hot Georgia team in the SEC Championship while the second ranked Alabama squad could just sit at home and enjoy the game on tv.  With the losses by Oregon, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Clemson, I see Alabama as a virtual lock for the title game if the Tide is 11-1. 

But here is the biggest nightmare for the BCS.  What do you do if Georgia plays its best game of the season and beats LSU in the SEC Championship?  We have already established that Alabama would be a lock for the title without being a conference winner.  Would LSU fit that role as well?  You would have to think that wins over Oregon, Alabama, Arkansas, and West Virginia would be enough to put the Tigers in the title game, right?

Ultimately, it would come down to the voters.  Would the voters penalize Alabama or LSU if they don’t win, or play in, the SEC Championship?  Will they promote a one loss Stanford or one loss Oklahoma State to play in the game instead?  By the way, Stanford won’t be playing in the Pac-12 title game unless Oregon loses to Oregon State.  So, good luck making a case for them.  Oklahoma State could have an outside shot if they beat Oklahoma handily and the voters don’t want to see a rematch.  What about a one loss Virginia Tech?  With only one win against top 25 teams (@ Georgia Tech), coupled with a win in the ACC Championship against Clemson, I don’t think the Hokies have the resume.

So, it boils down to the ultimate of scenarios, but one that isn’t really that hard to imagine.  Two teams that didn’t win their conference.  Two teams that have already played each other.  One giant push for some sort of college football playoff.  But that’s just plain silly.

BCS stands for "Bowls Can't Survive"

So, here we are.  Another college football season is winding down and the BCS formula has set us up for another round of playoff debate.  Entering Saturday, there were still five undefeated teams, including top ranked LSU,  (2)Oklahoma State, (4)Stanford, (5)Boise State, and Conference USA's (11)Houston.  A win over Oregon would have put Stanford in a position to compete for a spot in the title game.  Another win by Boise State would have added to their argument to be included in the championship.  But a funny thing happened on the way to this BCS drama.  Oregon smoked Stanford on its own field, 53-30, and Boise State lost a regular season conference home game for the first time in 13 years by missing a 39-yard field goal as time expired. 

So, the BCS has it all worked out right?  Both LSU and Oklahoma State have the clear path to the BCS Title Game as long as they remain clean the rest of the way.  Houston can make a BCS bowl by completing its own undefeated season and qualifying as the top ranked non-AQ school in the BCS.  No drama.  No debate.  But, what happens if Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma?  What if LSU gets tripped up by Arkansas, or loses in the SEC Championship game to Georgia?  What if they BOTH lose?  Well, then we will have one heck of a debate on our hands.

Currently the BCS has two teams who have only one loss at spots three and four.  Those teams:  Alabama and Oregon.  And both were given their lone loss by top ranked LSU, Alabama at home, 9-6 in OT, and Oregon 40-27 on a neutral field in the opening game of the season.  Next on the list is Oklahoma, who was the preseason number one team.  However, a home loss to unranked Texas Tech dropped them down the polls.  And with each passing week that loss looks worse as Texas Tech gets manhandled each week.  A win against Oklahoma State on the road coupled with a win at Baylor could be enough to give the Sooners a chance to play LSU for the title.

Arkansas still has an outside chance to play in the big game, and the match-up with LSU could throw an even bigger wrench into the BCS machine.  If Arkansas knocks off LSU in Baton Rouge while Alabama wins out, then there would be a three-way tie for the SEC West crown.  Since all head to head and common opponent tiebreakers would still result in a tie, it would then come down to the BCS standings to determine who plays the SEC East winner in the SEC Championship.  Of course, there is one additional caveat.  If the second highest ranked team is within five spots of the highest ranked team in the BCS Standings, then the tiebreaker is head to head between the top two teams.  Being that they are all within the top 6 currently, that seems to be a foregone conclusion.  How big would the human polls be that week?

So, if Arkansas does pull off the upset, and Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, we are left with the following scenario:  9 one-loss teams from BCS AQ conferences.  Here's how they would stack up going into conference championship games:

LSU*                     11-1            L Ark, W Ore^, W @MsSt, W @WVU, W Fla, W Aub, W @Ala

Alabama*             11-1            L LSU, W @Penn St, W Ark, W @Fla, W @Aub

Arkansas*            11-1            L @Ala, W TexAM, W Aub, W SCar, W @LSU

(* One of these teams would play in SEC Championship based on BCS standings)

Oregon                  11-1            L LSU^, W Ariz St, W @ Stan    

Stanford                11-1            L Ore, W Wash, W @ USC

(Oregon has tie-breaker to play in Pac-12 Championship)

Oklahoma St        11-1             L Okl, W @TexAM, W @ Tex, W Kan St

Oklahoma             11-1            L TTech, W @ FSU, W Tex^, W @Kan St, W @ Bay, W @ Ok St

(Big 12 no longer has a Championship game)

Clemson               11-1              L @GT. W Aub, W FSU, W @VT, W @SCar

Va Tech                 11-1             L Clem, W @ GT

(Clemson plays VT in ACC Championship if VT beats Virginia)

(^ played at a neutral field)

Based on current standings and strength of teams still remaining on the schedule, the winner of the SEC West tiebreaker would still be virtually guaranteed of playing for the BCS title if they were to win the SEC Championship.  The other spot isn't as easy to figure out.  Clemson would have wins at South Carolina and against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship if it were to win out.  Oklahoma would have the big win over Oklahoma State and at Baylor, but a horrible home loss to Texas Tech.  The remaining two SEC West teams would have great strengths of schedule, with Alabama's last game being @ Auburn.  Oregon would have USC and the Pac 12 Championship left on its resume.  Oklahoma State would have a single loss to Oklahoma.  How do you think that turns out for everyone?

It’s turning out to be a special season in college football, scandals excluded.  What better way to finish it off than with the biggest BCS debate of all time?  9 one-loss teams, two spots in the championship.  Does winner of Clemson and VT get a chance to play for the title?  Will Oklahoma’s bad loss to Texas Tech keep them out of the game?  Can LSU and Oklahoma State make this all moot by finishing off undefeated regular seasons?  My bet is no.  The next three weeks will help decide if I’m right.