So, here we are. Another college football season is winding down and the BCS formula has set us up for another round of playoff debate. Entering Saturday, there were still five undefeated teams, including top ranked LSU, (2)Oklahoma State, (4)Stanford, (5)Boise State, and Conference USA's (11)Houston. A win over Oregon would have put Stanford in a position to compete for a spot in the title game. Another win by Boise State would have added to their argument to be included in the championship. But a funny thing happened on the way to this BCS drama. Oregon smoked Stanford on its own field, 53-30, and Boise State lost a regular season conference home game for the first time in 13 years by missing a 39-yard field goal as time expired.
So, the BCS has it all worked out right? Both LSU and Oklahoma State have the clear path to the BCS Title Game as long as they remain clean the rest of the way. Houston can make a BCS bowl by completing its own undefeated season and qualifying as the top ranked non-AQ school in the BCS. No drama. No debate. But, what happens if Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma? What if LSU gets tripped up by Arkansas, or loses in the SEC Championship game to Georgia? What if they BOTH lose? Well, then we will have one heck of a debate on our hands.
Currently the BCS has two teams who have only one loss at spots three and four. Those teams: Alabama and Oregon. And both were given their lone loss by top ranked LSU, Alabama at home, 9-6 in OT, and Oregon 40-27 on a neutral field in the opening game of the season. Next on the list is Oklahoma, who was the preseason number one team. However, a home loss to unranked Texas Tech dropped them down the polls. And with each passing week that loss looks worse as Texas Tech gets manhandled each week. A win against Oklahoma State on the road coupled with a win at Baylor could be enough to give the Sooners a chance to play LSU for the title.
Arkansas still has an outside chance to play in the big game, and the match-up with LSU could throw an even bigger wrench into the BCS machine. If Arkansas knocks off LSU in Baton Rouge while Alabama wins out, then there would be a three-way tie for the SEC West crown. Since all head to head and common opponent tiebreakers would still result in a tie, it would then come down to the BCS standings to determine who plays the SEC East winner in the SEC Championship. Of course, there is one additional caveat. If the second highest ranked team is within five spots of the highest ranked team in the BCS Standings, then the tiebreaker is head to head between the top two teams. Being that they are all within the top 6 currently, that seems to be a foregone conclusion. How big would the human polls be that week?
So, if Arkansas does pull off the upset, and Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, we are left with the following scenario: 9 one-loss teams from BCS AQ conferences. Here's how they would stack up going into conference championship games:
LSU* 11-1 L Ark, W Ore^, W @MsSt, W @WVU, W Fla, W Aub, W @Ala
Alabama* 11-1 L LSU, W @Penn St, W Ark, W @Fla, W @Aub
Arkansas* 11-1 L @Ala, W TexAM, W Aub, W SCar, W @LSU
(* One of these teams would play in SEC Championship based on BCS standings)
Oregon 11-1 L LSU^, W Ariz St, W @ Stan
Stanford 11-1 L Ore, W Wash, W @ USC
(Oregon has tie-breaker to play in Pac-12 Championship)
Oklahoma St 11-1 L Okl, W @TexAM, W @ Tex, W Kan St
Oklahoma 11-1 L TTech, W @ FSU, W Tex^, W @Kan St, W @ Bay, W @ Ok St
(Big 12 no longer has a Championship game)
Clemson 11-1 L @GT. W Aub, W FSU, W @VT, W @SCar
Va Tech 11-1 L Clem, W @ GT
(Clemson plays VT in ACC Championship if VT beats Virginia)
(^ played at a neutral field)
Based on current standings and strength of teams still remaining on the schedule, the winner of the SEC West tiebreaker would still be virtually guaranteed of playing for the BCS title if they were to win the SEC Championship. The other spot isn't as easy to figure out. Clemson would have wins at South Carolina and against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship if it were to win out. Oklahoma would have the big win over Oklahoma State and at Baylor, but a horrible home loss to Texas Tech. The remaining two SEC West teams would have great strengths of schedule, with Alabama's last game being @ Auburn. Oregon would have USC and the Pac 12 Championship left on its resume. Oklahoma State would have a single loss to Oklahoma. How do you think that turns out for everyone?
It’s turning out to be a special season in college football, scandals excluded. What better way to finish it off than with the biggest BCS debate of all time? 9 one-loss teams, two spots in the championship. Does winner of Clemson and VT get a chance to play for the title? Will Oklahoma’s bad loss to Texas Tech keep them out of the game? Can LSU and Oklahoma State make this all moot by finishing off undefeated regular seasons? My bet is no. The next three weeks will help decide if I’m right.
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